Sunday, August 5, 2007

Systems Thinking Applied to politics

This is a post I wrote for the Daily Kos in September of 06. It started as just an essay I was working on, but then I got involved one afternoon, and decided to post it to see if anyone responded. The post received 28 comments, which I have included. I will likely edit this post substantially in the future, but it is a good start.

Think of organizations as systems, and spend some time googling the word "systems" and "systems thinking". It may not be what you think. Systems thinking is merely a way of analyzing problems in the way that the physical world appears to operate. Familiarity with systems thinking brings with it an overview of the evolution of human problem-solving and thought. Consider how superstition and irrational beliefs dominated human problem-solving for centuries, with some exceptions. Crude examples: Thunder means the Gods are angry, kings rule by divine right.

As humans and persecuted thinkers began to notice some inconsistencies between belief and observations of the physical world, cause and effect relationships were noticed, and true science began to emerge.
Naturally the birth, or re-birth of reason in human thought lead to faster progress in many areas of inquisition and problem-solving. The problem was that reason was applied for the most part in a reductionist manner; as our technology became more refined, we were able to look at smaller and smaller parts of things. In physics, we became aware of atoms and molecules, while biology centered on the cell and its components. Science believed that by understanding smaller and smaller parts, we would unlock a deeper understanding of our Universe.

Reductionism was better than mere belief, but in the end, it led to having lots of names for smaller and smaller parts, but understanding didn't seem to be growing as it should.

In the 1930s, scientists, (biologists, primarily) began to notice similar trends of progress and operation in different physical processes. Surely, they thought, there must be some way to quantify what they were noticing.

In the end, what they noticed was that relationships between components was as important, if not vastly more important that identifying parts. They noticed the repeating, cyclical nature of nearly everything, which led to a different way of looking at how natural events unfold in real time.

In a very simplified summary, that way of analyzing the world around us is known as systems thinking, often referred to by a more intimidating name, systemic analysis.

One way to understand systems thinking is to consider your household thermostat. It monitors the air temperature (input). When the temperature dips, the input triggers an activity (process). That process is the triggering of increased heat, which raises the air temperature (output). When the air reaches the desired temperature, that information joins the input process, but is known as feedback. The goal of the systemic operation is relatively consistent, or stable maintenance of temperature.

As are nearly all stable systems, your thermostat is a negative feedback system. We commonly think of negative feedback as criticism - but that has limited application in systems thinking as a whole. By example, your thermostat stops heat production when the heat rises to the desired point. Rising heat triggers a shutoff of heat production.

If rising heat triggered even more heat production, that would be a positive feedback system. It is negative feedback that keeps a system stable.

When you need food, your system triggers a feeling of hunger. As you eat, your hunger diminishes and finally leaves completely, so you stop eating. Again, that is negative feedback - the process of consuming food triggers you to stop eating (hopefully) and your body remains stable.

Cancer might be an example of a positive feedback system that threatens the larger system that is the human body. Cancer is the unrestricted reproduction of cells; negative feedback mechanisms are not working. The growth of of those cells consumes resources and destablizes the big system of which it is a part. If not controlled, the system strays so far out of stability, or equilibrium, that it ceases to function, or dies.

Most organizations, life-forms, and natural occurrences are systemic in nature, and most of them are complex systems. That means they have multiple feedback relationships between many components, and such systems are able to absorb changes, or solve problems quite well. This can be viewed as problem-solving, which can also be thought of as a form of cognition.

We consider problem-solving to be a product of our own interior monologue, or thought. But complex systems can absorb changes in their conditions or input, and maintain systemic stability.

You are not thinking or consciously commanding white blood cells to rush to a papercut, but they do so in response to the input of information. The Earth itself is a complex system that problem-solves; rising temperatures will allow the survival of plants that can absorb heat, rather than reflecting it back into the atmosphere. Eventually these plants will spread in the friendly environment, and absorb more and more heat, until they trigger a lowering of the temperature. Then more reflective plants will thrive, spreading and reflecing heat back into the system until the temperature rises again. This can happen with very simple simulations of planets with only black and white flowers, and the prototype program which you can download in various forms is known as Daisyworld.

You may have heard of top-down computation as compared to bottoms-up computation. These are competing theories on how to program computers or robots to handle complex tasks. Bottoms-up programming acknowledges the real world processes that occur in this systemic process, and the strange thing is that the emergence of complex systems occurs because of what is called self-organization. Within the laws of physics, as objects and particles interact with each other, they find these repeating patterns of relationship and organize around them. This built in flexibility takes form as negative feedback systems, which interact with each other in ways that are mutually beneficial, or at least in ways that are not mutually harmful. As increasingly complex systems work together to become macro-systems, they have a complexity that enables them to solve complex problems.

Complex, dynamic open and complex systems display what are known as emergent properties; that is, self-organization is not always predictable. Think of the phrase, the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. That whole may be an unexpected ability or trait of amazing sophistication and might be completely unforseeable. That is what so exciting about knowing you are a system that is a part of inumerable other complex systems, and it is why OPOL just might be right about the liberal awakening: our system is in a phase of emergence, as information is triggered througout the system in new ways immune to filtering. The Daily Kos and other blogs are perfect examples.

Natural systems are decentralized; there is no boss of the Earth, or really, of your bodies countless systems. Systems survive and remain stable because of the natural problem solving that arisies from self-organization and emergence. Again - your workplace is a system. The reason your supervisors and management teams often seem to give instructions that don't make sense is that they think they can order effective problem solving from the top down. They fail to recognize that you, the components of the system, are very good together in solving complex problems, by making natural use of the multiple feedback relationships that you have with so many others. If you just did your job description, and everyone else did the same, the organization would fail. You build relationships, and work with others to find real ways of solving problems. Then management, which has grown distant from the daily grind, comes in with "solutions" that are usually reductionist; someone in particular is the problem. They don't see your value, they are threatened by the thought of decentralized problem-solving as it really occurs, and react improperly, by giving commands that are bound to fail.

That is why you and your co-workers always know ahead of time that when it comes time to make cuts, they will be senseless and counter productive. True problem solving would be increased by encouraging many contacts with co-workers, to create as many random contacts as possible. The more random contacts, the more the system is prone to discover a connection or new relationship between two components, or people, that wildly increases problem solving and effectiveness.

bin Laden is meaningless. Think of terrorist organizations as the Borg on Star Trek. They were part of a collective, where leadership was de-emphasized, but the collective allowed itself to self-organize. Ships repaired themselves, damage and loss was absorbed into a complex system that repaired itself.

Likewise, terrorists operate as cells - self-organized, communicating over the internet, displaying organizational learning and emergent properties that might keep it one step ahead of the dinosaur, top down structured reductionist superpower.

Complex constructs, like groups or even corporations, and terrorist organizations, display behavioral traits that are similar to living organisms. Think of the work groups you have been a part of that you could tell was special, that worked together in a way that felt different and displayed abilities far beyond each of you individually. There was a group personality. Almost a mind, as it were - like your consciousness itself - an emergent quality of the nested neural networks in the human brain.

Liberals may rise again, because we are in the uncharted waters of self organization and emergence that make up the information age. You are a part of it right now - and the input you put out into the larger, living organism of the United States and the world must, by definition, be felt by all other components, even if it is in a small and undetectable degree.

Bush and his people are the worst of all problem-solvers - far worse than mere reductionism. Reductionism is a part of systems thinking, a necessary part. It tells us the importance of relationships, really even in quantum physics, where the smallest "particles" may have no mass, and exist, possibly, only as relationships with relationships to other relationships.

Bush does not start with observation, he starts with belief, as do his cronies. It is reductionism based on belief. They do not accept feedback; they stay the course, or as Stephen Colbert said, believe the same thing on Wednesday as they did on Monday, no matter what happened on Tuesday. So, we stay the course, ignore the feedback. Ignore the feedback on global warming. Encourage tort reform so that corporations can be immune from the feedback that keeps them stable. De-regulate industries so there are no consequnces, no feedback, to keep them stable.

They can't act in their own interest. Greed compells them to deregulate, the system becomes unstable, and collapses. Think savings and loan, Airlines, Enron.

The reductionist president can't learn, can't problem solve, and his administration and corporate supporters are not even acting in their own interests, and must, by the laws that govern the Universe, cause their own downfall, as cancer dies when the system it inhabits dies. This process cannot be subverted.

The only question, really, is whether we can do away with this cancer before it takes the rest of us down with it, in a great, systemic collapse.

Tags: liberal, war crimes, terrorism, George W. Bush, Dick Cheney (all tags)

Permalink | 28 comments

  • Feedforward! (4+ / 0-)

    And I thought some of my diaries were recondite! ; )

    We don't have time for short-term thinking.

    by Compound F on Fri Sep 01, 2006 at 02:02:45 PM PDT

  • Excellent diary (10+ / 0-)

    and very well said.

    One thing though...you are technically in violation of the 'call out rule' though its obvious you mean no harm to OPOL.

    Perhaps change your title to Response to Beware of Sleeping Giants Rudely Awakened, just to avoid misunderstanding?

  • Wow Systems thinking (4+ / 0-)

    applied to politics. Man this is great. I wish more politicians saw things this way.

    Most of them see the system as vote the right way, get money, vote the wrong way don't get money.

  • Senge would be proud (7+ / 0-)

    and [Jay Forrester would be proud too Jay Forrester] would be proud too but you needed a few causal loops to illustrate...

    I've attempted to describe systems thinking but it comes naturally to me so I have a hard time explaining it to anybody else - it's quite frustrating because I can teach just about any subject...

    In my old house, I observed the system

    Water leaked under the kitchen door for a long time - the previous owner did not fix it right away.
    The side of a kitchen cabint, made of particle board, got wet disintegrated and sagged. The cabinet door started swinging out of level, the strain on the hinges pulled the screws out of the wood. The old owner, instead of fixing the cabinet, put the screws into new holes.

    Meanwhile, as the cabinet settled, the drawer became difficult to pull out, eventually the front of the drawer was pulled off from use. Again, rather than fix the cabinet, the owner just rescrewed the drawer.

    All because of a little water leak under the door...

    When I bought the house, I replaced the back door, replaced the rotten floor, and replaced the cabinets...

    The Energy Miser
    A blog about alternative energy, saving energy, and saving the planet.

    by durrenm on Fri Sep 01, 2006 at 02:08:30 PM PDT

  • oops (2+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    nancelot, Compound F

    The Energy Miser
    A blog about alternative energy, saving energy, and saving the planet.

    by durrenm on Fri Sep 01, 2006 at 02:09:27 PM PDT

  • I like Ishmael (8+ / 0-)

    by Daniel Quinn. Takers and leavers. We are the takers. We believe God made us in his image. We believe it is perfectly natural to take whatever we want from the world because we are at the center of it all. We ignore natural laws because we think it is our destiny to manipulate the world, be masters of nature. Leavers on the other hand are simply the bushmen of Austrialia, the American indians and the few undisturbed hunter gatherer tribes left in the Amazon jungles, yes a simple primitive life.
    Now, is this relevant? Yes. The life choices of the takes logically can only lead to mass annihilation. It's as unquestionable as the law of gravity. When dropped from a high place and object will fall.
    If we continue our current course mankind will destroy the ecosystem and we all die, true might not happen in my lifetime, so, so what.
    But in the whole stream of what goes on in the cosmos the ramblings of those in power should ring out like the evil Sith lords from the Star Wars series.
    I gather a completely solar powered house can be had for a mere 30,000. Now if we bypassed the Iraq war how many families could be enjoying green sustainable power right now.

  • One analogy I've tried (6+ / 0-)

    has to do with water beds...

    When you push down on a water bed, it rises somewhere else. However, a waterbed is a simple system.

    In the real world, when you push on the "system" you don't know where it will come up...

    For example, in the global warming realm,
    CO2 in the atmosphere causes warming. Warming melts ice on Greenland, and the gulf stream slows down - why, because the salinity of the ocean near greenland goes down, the water becomes lighter and does not sink as fast. It is the rate of sinking that drives the gulf stream

    Its taken decades for us to figure out this system. No comparison to the waterbed...

    The Energy Miser
    A blog about alternative energy, saving energy, and saving the planet.

    by durrenm on Fri Sep 01, 2006 at 02:17:57 PM PDT

  • Recommended (4+ / 0-)

    Way too much to chew on here to come up with a sound-bite synopsis. Being me, I latch onto the notion that we're out here off the charrts, in terms of the possibilities of communication systems. We are doing something else than top down structure, using this new tool, the internet, that has appeared in the past decade. The concept of "forum" has never been so open to expansion, new interpretation. We (the blogosphere) are the cutting edge of the new tool as it is applied to the question of Democracy.

    We are in a state of evolving and shifting systems and there is no road map or plan; it is a time of great opportunity.

    All of us need to remember that behind the screen and the keyboard, there is a human, and that human, most likely is here as I am here and, I hope, you are also, in hope. Hope that in reaching out through this new channel of communication there will be others found who share that hope and are willing to help work towards manifesting the world we hope for. That means respect. Anybody who is trying to communicate in this medium is a forward thinker. Just by virtue of using this medium and putting your heart into it, as many of us do, you, all of us, even the bad guys (unfortunately) are a vanguard.

    don't always believe what you think...

    by claude on Fri Sep 01, 2006 at 02:23:19 PM PDT

  • Rec'd but not pored over (3+ / 0-)

    Systems thinking is what is needed. Most people (my Academic colleagues included) think only in cause and direct effect. They don't think of the repercussions down the line.

    For example, how do you attract better graduate students?

    Their response: By making the education better.

    My response, YES, that is ONE STEP. But only one.

    The right answer is by improving their employment options on the other side. One way to do that is to train them better, but another way is to get more recruiters aware of the program.

    It is also self-fulfilling because as the students get better at intake, they do better upon graduation, making the school more attractive and thereby improving intake, and around and around she goes.

    -6.5, -7.59. I want to know who the men in the shadows are... ~Jackson Browne

    by DrWolfy on Fri Sep 01, 2006 at 02:34:11 PM PDT

    • Which is why engaging the Reps (1+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      historys mysteries

      in reductionist debating is futile.

      They want the debate framed as EITHER "stay the course" OR "cut and run".

      We want the debate to be "define the mission," "define the criteria that measures our success," "describe the barriers to the acheivement of that success."

      Reps haven't done any of that type of thinking since -- well, I can't think of when...

      The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it -- GB Shaw

      by kmiddle on Fri Sep 01, 2006 at 03:04:07 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  • Fucking brilliant... (8+ / 0-)

    if I can inject a bit of gutter-slang into this fantastic diary.

    :) You took a high-level concept and brought it down enough for most people to understand, with a little bit of effort of course.

    Bravo my friend, and thanks, you filled in some missing pieces in my own knowledge and theories.

    Think of the work groups you have been a part of that you could tell was special, that worked together in a way that felt different and displayed abilities far beyond each of you individually. There was a group personality. Almost a mind, as it were - like your consciousness itself - an emergent quality of the nested neural networks in the human brain.

    Exactly what we all have here on the DK. Exactly why Kos remains firm that he's not the king of the blogosphere, no matter HOW much the MSM tries to push that meme. Our strength is in our distributed organization, and diversity of components.

    God I love this place. It always feels like coming home.

    Síocháin! It is by will alone I set my mind in motion.

    by Erevann on Fri Sep 01, 2006 at 02:53:06 PM PDT

    • Great. Now we're replaceable peripherals! (1+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      Erevann
      What next? Termites?

      (/snark)

      We don't have time for short-term thinking.

      by Compound F on Fri Sep 01, 2006 at 03:00:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    • Wonderful comment. (2+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      historys mysteries, Erevann

      Indeed, this diary filled in many "missing pieces in my own knowledge and theories."

      • I tell ya, I've learned more (4+ / 0-)

        Recommended by:
        ybruti, Compound F, buhdydharma, va dare

        in the past few years here, than I ever did in school. The sheer body of knowledge that's involved in this community is incredible.

        Take Mike Starks call to arms. A guy who gives wingnuts a hard time and shares it with the world, asks for help, and without having to explain exactly what it's for, he get's all he's asked for and more!

        This is the dynamic in play here everyday. Then, there's wmtriallawyer's diary on the rec list right now. You can bet he'll have all he's seeking, and needs.

        Generosity, trust, open honest communication, and a real sense of common vision. It amazes everyday, and I think that this is a political and social powerhouse, that is going to shape not just this nation, but the worlds future in ways we can only dream about right now.

        No wonder the MSM and those entrenched in power are so shocked and terrified. To use one of my favorite cliches; for the established powers, trying to harness this is like trying to heard cats, it simply can't be done top down, the cats are gonna go, where they're gonna go! :)

        Síocháin! It is by will alone I set my mind in motion.

        by Erevann on Fri Sep 01, 2006 at 03:49:58 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  • Fascinating. (1+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    god less force

    This is a new subject for me -- but I have always advocated that teachers need time to converse and brainstorm without administrators "helping".

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I've long been a proponent about the need for Systems Thinking in politics. As you can tell from my website name, I think ST is about the most crucial discipline around whether you're talking politics, psychology, engineering, whatever.

After I saw Sicko recently, this came to the forefront and I wrote this series about it. Systems Thinking is especially discussed in the fifth part, Campaign, Election and Media Reform: Levers and Leverage Points for Improving Our Society. In my mind, we need Systems Thinkers in all aspects of this society desperately.